How I Set Up My Pricer and Execution Engine for Kalshi 15 Minute BTC Markets
Part 5 of the hyhy.app series. The architecture behind my pricer and execution engine, a message-based pipeline on Redis, and the tradeoffs that come with it.
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Adding Flip Probability to 15 Minute BTC/ETH Pricing
Part 4 of the hyhy.app series. Why entries and exits should account for the chance that price touches the strike again before expiry, and how a barrier option approach fills that gap.
The Market Always Bites Back
Part 3 of the hyhy.app series. Why trading 15 minute BTC contracts means trading microstructure, what a regime shift looks like when it costs you, and what three months of live data suggest about when they happen.
Making a Trade out of the Model
Part 2 of the HYHY.APP series. Why trading the gap between model and market is harder than it looks, and how anchoring the stop-loss to the model price helped.
Pricing Kalshi 15 Minute BTC Markets with the Vol Smile
How I used the options market's volatility smile to price Kalshi's 15 minute BTC Up/Down contracts, and what happened when the model met live markets.