The Unfair Edge for Prediction Market 15m BTC Traders.

No. HYHY.APP shows you where the model and market disagree — the rest is your call. Some traders act as soon as a gap opens, some wait for the market to converge toward the model, some hold through to finality. The data is the same either way; the strategy is yours.

Model price is an independently derived estimate of fair value for each market, updated continuously as new data comes in. It's a data point for comparison against the live market price, not a signal to act on.

The starting point is Black-76, priced off the live BTC/ETH options market rather than historical data, so the volatility surface reflects what traders are actually pricing in right now, not what happened yesterday. From that base, the model adjusts for price trend, recent market choppiness, how unstable that choppiness has been, and short-term momentum to arrive at a fair-value estimate.

We don't publish backtested accuracy claims, because past divergence patterns don't guarantee future ones and it's easy to make a backtest look better than live conditions will. What you see on the dashboard — model price, market price, and the gap between them — is the same live data we trade on ourselves. We'd rather you judge it in real time than take a number on faith.

No. A fair-value model isn't a guaranteed win. Execution still depends on timing, risk management, and discipline, which is why results vary even with the same numbers. Selling access to the price doesn't hand anyone our edge; it hands them a tool they still have to use well.

Options order books and implied volatility are sourced directly from leading crypto derivatives venues. Spot rates draw from a weighted composite of top-tier global exchanges, while market pricing updates in real time straight from the event contract exchange order book.

Live coverage of Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin and Ethereum prediction markets, tracking every active target continuously from open to expiry.

You can connect your Telegram account to receive instant push notifications whenever the model and market diverge. Because the alerts are configurable, you set the exact thresholds for when you want to be notified, freeing you from watching the charts all day.

A complete chart requires every input to be available: spot price, the market's target, live market price, and options market volatility. If any one of them is missing or incomplete — including Kalshi not yet providing full target information — a fair model price can't be calculated, and it will show as unavailable rather than an estimate. We don't fill in missing data to make the chart look more complete than it is.

Data is collected continuously, but gaps can occasionally occur due to feed interruptions or maintenance. When they do, we disclose them rather than silently filling them in. We don't estimate or backfill missing data to make the archive look more complete than it is.

Archive depth grows over time and varies by plan — up to 30 days on Monthly, up to 90 days on Yearly. Because the archive is built from data collected going forward, full depth is reached gradually rather than available instantly on day one of any subscription.

Free gives you a delayed chart. Paid plans provide real time ticks, Telegram alerts and progressively more archive history and detail (candles, tick analytics) at higher tiers. See the pricing page for a full breakdown.

Yes. Verification is required before subscribing to any paid plan, to keep access limited to real users.

When you verify your email, your account gets 3 days of full access, including realtime data, charts and alerts. No card is required. After 3 days your account moves to the Free plan automatically, and you can upgrade any time.

The terms explain what the data is (and isn't), what we provide, and how your subscription works. You can't access paid features until you've reviewed and accepted them.

Yes. You can cancel your subscription at any time, and you'll retain access until the end of your current billing period.

No. HYHY.APP is an independent product that uses publicly available market data. It is not endorsed by or affiliated by Kalshi.